Each year I make a set of predictions. This year none of these will be super surprising but will help to shape a better year ahead.
- Neo banks will have to consolidate
- Food delivery (started to see this already with Weezy selling to Getir)
- Social media apps (to grow is to join forces or sell)
- Podcast and podcast apps (will have to join together or shutter)
Audio Decline — Yes decline
- Podcast now has a discovery issue not a quality or quantity issue
- Too much content — too hard to surface great content
- Music vs audio note vs podcasts vs audiobook — concentration and dedication required is forcing time to be selected wisely
- Niche communities love to sample new tech, voice is here to stay but will it live everywhere on every app NO.
- Clubhouse, Twitter Spaces, will see more stagnation as audio takes too much time and attention without the reward(s)
- The western countries are desperate to build a super app similar to WeChat.
Facebook, Google, Amazon etc will all look to do this. Google should be there with android + search + maps.
- Utility play with messaging should win — it won’t, why Google is too big.
- Amazon is closest IMHO if it knows how to leverage social selling
- Trust issues — large brands struggle to gain enough trust.
- Social media is too fragmented in the west to control this.
- Struggle to influence like WeChat & control is so important.
New UGC Platforms
- The competition to compete against YouTube as mass view platform
- Big firms will become wary of discord & telegram — both huge networks, large groups and can have private, semi-private and public information and videos.
- TikTok longer form options. The TV shift is a brilliant move — larger screens dominate how houses are set up. Mobiles don’t!
- iMessage and WhatsApp need to step up & offer play & comment in their own chat app
Work — New Work
- Third place become normalised for work — especially in progressive firms
- Local offices become more popular
- Return to the office then hybrid takes over
- Great reconsideration — resignations to slow with fewer jobs that people really think is out there
The Continued DTC Shift
- Many brands shifting more to own the customer (zero party data!)
- Hybrid brands — brands are slowly realising most countries still need shops and physical presence
Collaborations — DTC Brands partner with existing high street brands to co-promote
Boom of Payless
- Amazon, Tesco, Sainsburys, Co-op all going to double down on camera + app payments (cashier-less = the future)
- Stores rely heavily on needing teams of people
- We will likely see contactless and innovation with online purchasing coupled with click&collect
- Mental health continues to gain traction. Better apps, better insights
- Therapy will (finally) become even more normalised in UK and European market
- Physical fitness becomes more personalised
- Gym vs home workouts becomes a huge battleground
- Utility nfts become more mainstream and understandable
- Smart contracts will dominate discussions — too hard for many to understand!
- NFT marketplaces will struggle with handling fakes and productising safety features
- Crypto becomes more complicated not less
Huge-IT Security Risks & Hacks
- IT security is going to be huge & costly
- Remote work and hybrid causes huge strains on systems
- Email spam becomes a big boom again
(will be huge in hybrid setups + with chat apps)
- More big company hacks of old databases
It is many years away but will dominate too much of the news cycle without addressing real life issues and existing issues.
Lastly. RIP to mass Subscriptions
Subscriptions are great for modelling businesses but wallet share and how much people can actually have to spend rarely changes and subs will have to be revisited & many of what seemed worth while for under £$15pm won’t feel the same